The Red Flag Screener
The deal in front of you, against the patterns that killed them
Every acquisition failure in Buyer Beware by Jed Morris ran on the same seven link chain. Answer fifteen questions about your deal and see which links are already live, which red lines you have crossed, and what to take back to the seller this week.
Fifteen scored questions in three sections. The verdict, the red lines and the chain come back before any email. No cost.
Of the acquisition failures Jed has studied for Buyer Beware, roughly two out of three involved a seller who materially misrepresented the business. That is his own tally from his own interviews, not an industry statistic. Nobody keeps those.
“A business with no reserve does not get bad quarters. It only gets endings.”
Buyer Beware by Jed Morris
Questions
What the screener is doing
+What is a red line, and why is it absolute?
A red line is a condition with no price attached to it. There are five in this screener: a confession of judgment in the documents, someone loyal to the seller able to sign on the account your payroll runs through, outside or preferred money whose powers you cannot name, personal guarantees that exist only in your head, and a closing clock set by the seller or the broker. Cross one and the screener returns a red line verdict no matter how clean the rest of the run looks. In the book these are not discounted and not restructured. They are the end of that deal.
+Why does an independent earnings review matter at every deal size?
The earnings number sets the price, the debt, and whether the debt can be paid. It is the one number you should never be the only person to check. In the book, one buyer skipped the review on an $8.5 million deal and bought earnings the seller had painted. Another skipped it because he read numbers for a living, and roughly $170,000 of the $180,000 he thought he was buying was phantom. Independent means not the seller's accountant and not your own spreadsheet, however good you are with numbers.
+What is a confession of judgment?
A confession of judgment, sometimes called a cognovit note, lets the other side take judgment against you with no trial and no hearing. Notice, a hearing, a chance to argue: all waived in advance, before you know what the fight is about. It usually rides inside a seller note or a lender document rather than announcing itself. One buyer in the book signed one on an $8.5 million deal, and when the relationship turned it took twenty one days to execute a company that was growing forty percent a year.
+Why does deal fatigue change your judgment?
Fatigue does not just rush your signature. It shrinks your worst case. The buyer who was eleven months in with no income left ran a careful model that tested a ten percent decline; the real one was thirty to forty percent. That is why the screener asks how long you have been searching before it asks anything about the deal, and why the answer is never scored. It is context for everything else. The counter is the month eleven protocol: buy at month eleven only what month one you would have bought.
+What is the seven link chain?
Every failure studied for the book ran on the same chain: a tired yes, a missing check, paper against you, hidden weight, and no cushion. Those five are inputs, and your answers light them. The last two, the crack and the spiral, are consequences rather than inputs. Something specific breaks, and then debt stays fixed while cash falls. On a padded, well papered company a crack is survivable, so the screener only shows those two as in range once three or more of the first five links are live.
+What is this tool not?
It is not legal, tax, financial or investment advice, and it is not a substitute for diligence. It does not replace your attorney, your accountant, or an independent quality of earnings review, and answering fifteen questions is not the same as verifying anything. A clear result means nothing in this run matched the patterns in the book, not that the deal is sound. Use it to decide where to spend your diligence dollars, then go spend them.
This screener is educational. It is not legal, tax, financial or investment advice, and it does not replace your attorney, your accountant or an independent quality of earnings review. The questions and the stories behind them come from Buyer Beware by Jed Morris. The buyers named are the book's anonymized retellings of real acquisitions.